According to Polymarket, former President Donald Trump’s lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in the U.S. presidential race has narrowed significantly, although he still holds a slight edge. Trump’s odds fell from 66.9% to 54%, while Harris’s chances rose from 33.5% to 46.1%, reflecting shifting sentiment as Election Day on November 5 draws closer.
Polymarket’s Role in Political Betting Built on Ethereum’s blockchain, Polymarket enables users to bet on real-world outcomes by trading in USDC, a stablecoin, instead of volatile cryptocurrencies. The Wall Street Journal recently reported that a high-stakes Polymarket trader, identified as Théo, has placed over $30 million on a Trump win.
Poll Data and Recent Events Impacting Trends New data from an Iowa Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll has bolstered Harris’s position. Known for accuracy, pollster Ann Selzer’s results show Harris with a 47% support rate, slightly ahead of Trump’s 44% among likely voters in Iowa. This is a notable swing from September, where Trump held a 4-point lead. Selzer confirmed that the poll methodology mirrors that used in 2016 and 2020, when Trump won Iowa.
Meanwhile, attention has also turned to recent revelations from Michael Wolff’s 2017 interviews with Jeffrey Epstein, as reported by The Daily Beast. The recordings detail Epstein’s decade-long friendship with Trump before his death in 2019.
Diverging Crypto Stances The candidates’ positions on crypto regulation have become a focal point for investors. Trump has adopted a pro-crypto stance, publicly supporting the industry and accepting crypto donations for his campaign. In contrast, Harris has taken a cautious approach, although she has pledged to incorporate crypto into her broader economic strategy. Harris received a boost from Ripple (XRP) co-founder Chris Larsen, who recently donated over $11.8 million to her campaign, expressing confidence that her policies will contrast favorably with the Biden administration’s regulatory approach.
Bitcoin Price and Market Volatility Amid political shifts, Bitcoin’s price recently dropped to $68,000, reflecting the overall market’s cautious sentiment. The global crypto market cap has declined by 1.95% to $2.28 trillion, with Bitcoin dipping as low as $67,300 before rebounding. Ethereum also fell, reaching the $2,400 mark amid these fluctuations.
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