The French National Gambling Authority (Autorité Nationale des Jeux) is reportedly considering a ban on Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market, following massive, high-stakes bets by a French user on the U.S. presidential election.
National Gambling Authority Weighs Ban on Polymarket
Paris-based Web3 news platform The Big Whale recently reported that French regulators may prohibit Polymarket across the European Union. An insider explained that “despite Polymarket’s use of cryptocurrency, it remains a betting platform, which is not permitted in France.”
The proposed ban stems from a series of headline-making bets by “Freddi9999,” a French national who wagered millions on Donald Trump’s victory. His successful bet culminated in a $47.5 million payout, raising questions about the platform’s operations and the legality of such activities in Europe.
Allegations of Market Manipulation and Wash Trading
Concerns surrounding Polymarket grew when Fortune published an October 30 report indicating signs of market manipulation. The article highlighted instances of “wash trading,” a tactic where shares are bought and sold simultaneously to inflate market activity. Polymarket has denied the allegations, promising to review user location policies to improve compliance.
Prediction Markets Under U.S. Scrutiny
In the U.S., prediction markets have also faced backlash, with lawmakers expressing concerns over their impact on democratic processes. Tech entrepreneur Elon Musk voiced support for prediction markets, suggesting they may be more accurate than traditional polling, as financial stakes often yield serious, informed guesses.
Nevertheless, some lawmakers argue that allowing bets on elections diminishes the democratic process. A group of Democratic lawmakers appealed to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in August, advocating for a ban on political election betting. They argued that financial incentives could cloud voters’ motivations and erode public trust, allowing wealthy individuals and insiders to manipulate election outcomes based on financial gain.
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