The Bitcoin options market is indicating a modest probability—just 9.58%—of the cryptocurrency reaching or exceeding $100,000 by the close of December, based on recent data from leading exchange Deribit.
Options, a derivative financial instrument, provide buyers with the choice, not the obligation, to purchase or sell Bitcoin at a pre-set price before a specified date. A call option allows for purchasing Bitcoin (a bullish position), while a put option acts as a defense against potential price declines.
Bitcoin’s Implied Volatility Holds Steady Between 50% and 60%
This modest probability aligns with Bitcoin’s implied volatility stability, which has ranged between 50% and 60% over the past three months, as per Deribit’s Bitcoin Implied Volatility Index (DVOL). This consistency reflects market sentiment that Bitcoin will likely experience controlled price fluctuations in the near term. The volatility is still far below the March 2024 high of 85%, signaling more market stability.
The options-based probability models, often using Black-Scholes calculations, derive implied probabilities from factors such as spot price, strike price, expiration, volatility, and the risk-free rate. Implied volatility is pivotal here—higher volatility typically raises the probability of Bitcoin hitting certain price levels.
Market Projections: A Surge to $80,000 by Year-End?
Despite the limited probability for a $100,000 finish, some market analysts suggest Bitcoin could close the year near $80,000. Jeff Park, Bitwise’s head of alpha strategies, even estimates a potential spike to $92,000 if Donald Trump wins the upcoming U.S. presidential election on November 5. Park analyzed Bitcoin’s price trends alongside Trump’s election odds on the decentralized platform Polymarket and applied merger-arbitrage-style probability calculations to arrive at this projection.
Bitcoin Options Open Interest Peaks at $40.5 Billion
Open interest (OI) in Bitcoin futures reached an all-time high of $40.5 billion on October 21, with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) leading in Bitcoin futures OI at 30.7%, followed by Binance at 20.4% and Bybit at 15%. Rising OI levels highlight increased leverage in the market, potentially pointing toward heightened volatility if prices shift sharply.
For ongoing insights into cryptocurrency trends and analysis, visit CentBit.Online – Crypto & Blockchain Expert Bangladesh.
Ümraniye süpürge servisi yorum Süpürgem artık eskisinden daha sessiz çalışıyor. https://www.trngamers.co.uk/read-blog/10203