Donald Trump’s odds of winning against Vice President Kamala Harris have surged on Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform, raising concerns about potential market manipulation just weeks before the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
Trump’s Surprising Lead Over Harris on Polymarket
According to Polymarket’s “Presidential Election Winner 2024” poll, Trump is leading with 62.1% of the bets, compared to Harris’s 37.9%. This shift in odds has drawn attention, especially after a notable wager from a user known as Fredi9999, who reportedly placed a $20 million bet on Trump, skewing the market and fueling questions about the accuracy of Polymarket’s odds.
Interestingly, this stark contrast doesn’t align with national polling data, where Harris leads Trump with 48.5% to 46.2%. The divergence between prediction markets and traditional polling has sparked debates about the reliability of platforms like Polymarket.
Political Betting Markets Under Scrutiny
The controversy surrounding political prediction markets has grown as Election Day nears. Elon Musk, CEO of X (formerly Twitter), claimed that betting platforms are “more accurate than polls” due to the involvement of “actual money.” However, critics argue that large bets can distort results, and this case appears to support that concern.
Several U.S. lawmakers, including Elizabeth Warren, Richard Blumenthal, and Jeff Merkley, have raised concerns about the potential influence of big money in these markets. In an August 2024 letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), they argued that election gambling could compromise the integrity of the democratic process by replacing genuine political convictions with financial motivations.
Could Trump’s Polymarket Odds Be Manipulated?
Prediction market Kalshi recently won a court battle allowing it to sell political event contracts, though a federal appeals court is reviewing the decision. On Kalshi’s platform, Trump also leads Harris, with 57% to her 43%. Experts like Brandon Carl, Head of AI and Strategy at Smarsh Inc., warn that prediction markets are susceptible to manipulation, with users following perceived winners rather than reflecting true odds.
As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, concerns about the legitimacy of platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi persist, raising questions about the influence of large wagers on public perception and electoral outcomes.
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