The decentralized prediction market Polymarket has revealed a significant statistic: a majority of its users have not achieved profits. According to recent data from on-chain analytics platform Layerhub, 87.3% of the 171,113 active crypto wallets on Polymarket have not recorded any gains. This means 149,383 wallets ended up without profits, while only 12.7% or 21,730 wallets managed to turn a profit.
Modest Returns for Profitable Wallets
Even among the wallets that saw positive returns, the profits remain modest. Only 2,138 wallets earned more than $1,000, while most recorded gains below $100. Another 7,400 wallets reported profits between $100 and $1,000, signaling that high returns are relatively rare on the platform.
Polymarket, which allows users to wager on real-world events using cryptocurrency, has processed 10.8 million betting trades. Activity on the platform surged between October 6 and 8, with daily trades surpassing 300,000, driven by geopolitical events and the rising anticipation around the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
User Behavior and High-Risk Strategies
Not all crypto wallets on Polymarket belong to individual users. Some traders operate multiple wallets to diversify their bets, often employing high-risk strategies to maximize their chances of securing a profit. Data reveals that nearly 25,000 wallets have engaged in over 50 trades, while 32,000 wallets completed 20 to 50 trades. On the flip side, around 58,000 wallets participated in just one to five trades, indicating that many users engage only sporadically.
As of October 9, Polymarket’s open interest—the total value of active futures contracts—stood at $161.1 million. The platform recently gained media attention when Tesla CEO Elon Musk tweeted that Polymarket’s betting odds might be more accurate in predicting the 2024 U.S. presidential election than traditional polls, emphasizing the impact of actual money on the line.
Bloomberg to Integrate Polymarket Election Data
In a significant development, Bloomberg LP is set to incorporate Polymarket’s election odds into its Terminal, making real-time election data from the platform more accessible to traditional financial market players. Operating on the Polygon network, Polymarket has emerged as a leading platform for tracking event outcomes, offering transparency through on-chain data and smart contracts for trade execution and payouts.
However, not everyone is in favor of election betting. A bipartisan group of U.S. Senators and Representatives recently called for a ban on wagering related to the 2024 presidential election, citing concerns that large wagers from wealthy individuals could undermine the democratic process by swaying public opinion.
Polymarket’s Future Growth and Monetization Strategies
Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan hinted at future plans to enhance the platform’s profitability. As Polymarket continues to expand its marketplace and improve user experience, Coplan mentioned the potential introduction of commission fees as a strategy to drive growth. Although focused on increasing market reach, the company may soon explore platform fees to boost revenue streams.
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