Critical Bitcoin support at $60,000 is now under pressure due to growing geopolitical concerns, according to Geoff Kendrick, Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered. In a recent report, Kendrick emphasized that Bitcoin is not acting as a safe-haven asset amid escalating tensions, particularly following Iran’s offensive against Israel, which triggered a simultaneous drop in both the crypto and stock markets.
Despite stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data briefly halting a drop below $60,000, Kendrick believes that geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, could still push Bitcoin below this critical level. He argues that this dip could present a strong buying opportunity, highlighting increased activity in Bitcoin’s options market as a sign of potential recovery.
U.S. Elections Impact Bitcoin Sentiment
Kendrick also drew attention to the U.S. presidential election dynamics. According to Polymarket data, Donald Trump has overtaken Kamala Harris by 1% in election odds after a long period of trailing her. This shift introduces a unique “circularity” effect in the Bitcoin market. Although geopolitical concerns might drag prices lower in the short term, Kendrick suggests that Trump’s rising odds could positively impact Bitcoin’s outlook, especially considering Trump’s favorable stance towards cryptocurrencies.
A Trump victory is widely seen as bullish for Bitcoin. Past reports from Standard Chartered have forecasted a potential year-end Bitcoin price target of $220K under a Trump presidency. On the other hand, a Harris presidency could initially trigger a price drop, though Kendrick expects investors would buy into this dip, given her recent endorsement of digital assets. Under her leadership, Bitcoin could still reach $75K.
Positive Market Indicators: Bitcoin Call Options Surge
Recent market activity reveals growing call option open interest, particularly for the $80,000 strike price expiring in December, with an increase of 1,300 Bitcoin in just two days. This uptick in demand for call options suggests that many traders are optimistic about upward price movement, further supporting Kendrick’s argument that Bitcoin’s current dip presents a buying opportunity.
As a result, Kendrick predicts a strong Q4 for Bitcoin, driven by election dynamics, rising call option interest, and ongoing market catalysts.
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