A surge of optimism is building in the cryptocurrency market, with analysts predicting that the next major altseason could be the biggest since 2017. Driven by a combination of historical, technical, and fundamental indicators, experts believe that the groundwork is being laid for a significant rally in altcoins.
Technical Signals Point to Altcoin Breakout
On September 23rd, a pseudonymous analyst named Moustache shared a chart on X (formerly Twitter), suggesting that TOTAL2 — the total market cap for altcoins excluding Bitcoin — is breaking out of a six-month descending broadening wedge pattern. This technical breakout is viewed as a bullish signal for the altcoin market.
Moustache pointed out that recent buying pressure has led to the Relative Strength Index (RSI) breaking out of its downward trend, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator showing signs of an impending bullish cross. This setup could lead to what Moustache described as “a god candle,” signaling a large-scale price surge across the altcoin market.
Bitcoin’s Dominance Slips as Investors Turn to Altcoins
Bitcoin’s market dominance has dropped to 57.48%, a 0.71% decline over the past week, according to TradingView data. Analysts interpret this as a sign that Bitcoin’s peak dominance has been reached, with investors starting to rotate their capital from Bitcoin into altcoins. This rotation is often a precursor to a major altseason, where alternative cryptocurrencies outpace Bitcoin in gains.
Fundamental Catalysts Drive Altseason Momentum
While technical factors suggest a breakout, the real fuel for a prolonged altseason comes from key fundamental developments. One major catalyst is the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points. This policy shift has led to a more “risk-on” attitude among investors, encouraging them to explore speculative assets like cryptocurrencies as borrowing costs decrease.
Another key factor is the anticipated release of $16 billion from FTX creditors between December 2024 and March 2025. Analysts estimate that between $5 billion and $8 billion of this could flow back into the crypto market, potentially driving a rally in both Bitcoin and altcoins.
Political developments are also playing a role in the heightened bullish sentiment. Vice President Kamala Harris recently voiced support for digital assets and artificial intelligence (AI), further solidifying the pro-crypto stance ahead of the upcoming U.S. election. With bipartisan support for cryptocurrencies from both Harris and former President Donald Trump, regulatory clarity and favorable policies could soon emerge, pushing the market forward.
Not Quite Altseason Yet, According to Metrics
Despite the growing optimism, it’s not time to declare an official altseason just yet. The Altcoin Season Index by Blockchain Center currently shows that only 33% of the top 50 altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin over the last 90 days. For a true altseason, 75% of altcoins need to outperform Bitcoin in the same period.
While the metrics indicate that we’re not there yet, the current market is seen as an accumulation phase, offering investors the opportunity to strengthen their positions in top-performing altcoins before the expected altseason kicks off.
Conclusion: Optimism Builds for Imminent Altseason
With technical patterns aligning, favorable market conditions, and key political and economic catalysts in place, analysts are increasingly confident that a major altseason is on the horizon. While caution remains until more definitive signs appear, the current environment presents a valuable opportunity for investors to prepare for what could be the largest altcoin bull run since 2017.