As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, the cryptocurrency community is watching closely to see how the outcome may impact the industry. Former President Donald Trump has positioned himself as a strong advocate for the sector, dubbing himself the “crypto president,” while Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, has taken a more restrained stance on digital assets.
According to a recent analysis by VanEck, led by Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research, and Nathan Frankovitz, a digital asset investment analyst, both a Harris and a Trump administration could have positive effects on Bitcoin prices. However, the broader crypto market could experience different outcomes depending on who wins.
Harris Presidency: A Mixed Bag for Crypto, Bullish for Bitcoin
VanEck outlines that a Harris presidency could see SEC Chair Gary Gensler remain in power, continuing his rigorous regulatory approach to the crypto industry. Harris is likely to align with the regulatory-focused faction of the Democratic Party, represented by figures like Senator Elizabeth Warren. This could make it difficult for the crypto industry to expand, particularly when it comes to institutional adoption and innovation, due to tighter regulations.
However, despite this regulatory pressure, VanEck’s analysts suggest that a Harris presidency could ultimately be bullish for Bitcoin. Increased government spending, regulatory tightening, and economic uncertainty under Harris could drive more investors to Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and a weaker dollar. The structural issues in the economy could make Bitcoin more appealing as a store of value, boosting its competitiveness against other digital assets.
Trump Presidency: Favorable for Broader Crypto Market Growth
On the other hand, a Trump administration could provide more benefits to the broader crypto market. VanEck’s analysis suggests that a second Trump term would likely bring deregulation and business-friendly policies that could be advantageous for crypto entrepreneurs. Less regulatory scrutiny would create a more conducive environment for innovation and growth, making it easier for the crypto sector to expand.
Bernstein Predicts Bitcoin Surge if Trump Wins
Not all analysts agree with VanEck’s view. A separate report from Bernstein projects that Bitcoin prices could surge to $80,000 to $90,000 if Trump wins the election. Conversely, a Harris victory could result in Bitcoin’s price falling to the $30,000 to $40,000 range, reflecting a more challenging economic and regulatory environment for the crypto market.
Despite these contrasting predictions, both VanEck and Bernstein agree that Bitcoin is well-positioned for growth regardless of who wins the election. The U.S. economy is expected to continue facing rising fiscal deficits and increasing national debt, which could weaken the U.S. dollar. Historically, such conditions have been favorable for Bitcoin, as investors turn to it as a hedge against economic instability.
Standard Chartered Sees Bitcoin Hitting New Highs
Adding to the optimism, Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick predicts that Bitcoin will reach new all-time highs by the end of 2024, regardless of the election’s outcome. Kendrick suggests that if Trump wins, Bitcoin could soar to $125,000, while a Harris victory would see it reach $75,000 by the end of the year, driven by positive macroeconomic factors.
In conclusion, while the broader crypto market may face challenges under a Harris administration, Bitcoin could thrive due to increased demand as a safe haven asset. Conversely, a Trump presidency would likely promote broader crypto market growth through deregulation and pro-business policies, benefiting the industry as a whole.
