In a surprising development in the U.S. presidential race, betting odds on the Polymarket platform have swung in favor of former President Donald Trump. This shift follows indications that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. may withdraw from his independent campaign and potentially endorse Trump.
On Tuesday, Polymarket bettors gave Trump a 52% chance of winning the upcoming election, surpassing Vice President Kamala Harris, who now holds a 47% chance. Just a day earlier, the odds were nearly tied, with Harris slightly ahead.
Impact of Kennedy’s Potential Withdrawal on Betting Trends
Kennedy’s possible withdrawal has notably influenced betting trends, particularly in key battleground states like Pennsylvania. Initially, Harris was favored to win in Pennsylvania, but recent shifts in betting have now resulted in a nearly even race between her and Trump, with Trump gaining a slight advantage.
Despite the momentum on Polymarket, other betting platforms like PredictIt still show Harris as the frontrunner, with a 56% chance of victory compared to Trump’s 47%. Data from the Election Betting Odds tracker, which aggregates multiple sources, also reflects a tightening race, with Trump holding a narrow lead at 49.3% compared to Harris’s 49.1%.
Polymarket Faces Scrutiny Amid Record Trading Volume
As Polymarket’s trading volume surges, it has come under scrutiny from U.S. lawmakers. A bipartisan group of Senators and House representatives, including prominent figures like Senators Jeff Merkley and Elizabeth Warren, have called for a ban on election-related betting. In a letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), they expressed concerns that such markets could allow wealthy individuals to influence election outcomes, undermining public trust in the democratic process.
Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform launched in 2020, has recently achieved record-breaking trading volumes, reaching $1 billion in monthly trading for the first time, with $343 million recorded in July alone. The platform allows users to bet on real-world events using cryptocurrencies, making it a significant player in the growing intersection of politics and prediction markets.
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