Ethereum has seen a notable 41% increase in value over the first seven months of the year but is expected to fall short of reaching its all-time high. According to a Polymarket poll, the likelihood of Ethereum climbing back to its peak of $4,857 in 2024 has dropped from 75% in June to 49%, attracting over $623,000 in funds. To achieve this record, ETH would need to rise by 46.17% from Wednesday’s price of $3,318, but market participants see a lack of clear catalysts for this growth.
Ethereum’s Performance and Market Sentiment
A separate Polymarket poll with $334,000 in funds shows only a 13% chance of Ether reaching $10,000 in 2024. Despite outperforming peers like Avalanche, Cardano, and Near Protocol, Ethereum has lagged behind Bitcoin and Solana, which have risen by 50% and 65%, respectively. Ethereum has also generated significant revenue in transaction fees, amounting to $1.75 billion, surpassing Tron, Bitcoin, and Lido Finance.
Competitive Landscape and Influences
Ethereum faces strong competition, particularly from Justin Sun’s Tron, which has gained favor in the payment industry among Tether users. While Ethereum has benefited from recently approved spot ETFs, with Blackrock’s ETHA fund attracting over $442 million, its performance has mirrored Bitcoin’s post-ETF approval decline. This downturn may be due to ongoing liquidation from the Grayscale Ethereum Trust, which has a high expense ratio.
Conditions for Ethereum to Reach Its All-Time High
For Ethereum to hit its all-time high this year, two key conditions must be met:
- Bitcoin must experience a strong bullish breakout above its record high of over $73,300. This is plausible as Bitcoin has formed several bullish patterns, including a falling broadening wedge, an inverse head and shoulders, and a cup and handle on the weekly chart.
- Ethereum must invalidate its double-top chart pattern between $3,970 and $4,095 in a high-volume environment, indicating robust demand for the coin.
Additionally, a potential catalyst could be the Federal Reserve signaling interest rate cuts in September, making riskier assets like cryptocurrencies more attractive to investors.
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