The approval of a Solana (SOL) ETF may largely depend on significant regulatory changes within the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the potential re-election of Donald Trump, according to analysts.
Following the recent greenlighting of spot Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) ETFs, VanEck is now pursuing approval for its Solana ETF. However, the sentiment in the crypto community is that regulatory obstacles remain substantial for altcoin ETFs other than ETH or BTC. VanEck analysts acknowledge that significant regulatory shifts are necessary for the Solana ETF to be approved.
In a recent Bloomberg interview, Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s Head of Digital Assets Research, discussed the regulatory challenges facing the Solana ETF approval.
Regulatory Challenges for Solana ETF
Sigel pointed out that SEC Chair Gary Gensler has imposed stringent conditions for altcoin ETFs, including the existence of a regulated futures market for Solana, which currently does not exist. Sigel disagrees with this requirement, arguing that ETFs for other sectors, like shipping and uranium, do not rely on futures markets for price discovery. He speculated that this requirement might be a deliberate tactic to delay the approval of crypto ETFs.
“[Gensler] has created that condition since taking power. There are a number of ETFs that trade where the futures market is irrelevant to the price formation,” Sigel stated.
Sigel suggested that a change in the SEC’s stance might depend on new leadership after the 2024 election. He highlighted the growing influence of pro-crypto voters on election outcomes, which could prompt both major political parties to reconsider their positions.
Donald Trump’s Potential Influence
Responding to speculation that the approval of VanEck’s Solana spot ETF proposal hinges on Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidency, Sigel confirmed this sentiment. Former President Donald Trump has recently shown more favorable views on cryptocurrency, influenced by significant donations from crypto businesses, which could shape his policies if re-elected.
Additionally, some analysts speculate that even if President Biden is re-elected, there might be a shift in the SEC’s approach to crypto, as some Democrats have shown support for pro-crypto policies.
Election Impact on Solana ETF Proposal
VanEck’s Solana spot ETF proposal is closely tied to the outcome of the 2024 election, with an application deadline set for March 2025. The proposal has already generated considerable interest, leading to a surge in Solana’s trading volume following the filing.
The crypto community is keenly watching the upcoming election and its potential impact on the regulatory landscape for cryptocurrencies, particularly for the approval of new altcoin ETFs like Solana.
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