Bitcoin (BTC) recently reversed its downward trend, gaining bullish traction and climbing to around $61,500, with an intraday high of $62,150. This upswing suggests a potential bullish outlook for Bitcoin.
The rally is attributed to softer US macroeconomic data, which has increased speculation about an impending Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle this year, prompting a short-covering rally in BTC prices.
Additionally, Bitcoin received a boost as Donald Trump extended his lead over Joe Biden in betting markets during the June 27 presidential debate, enhancing investor confidence.
However, Bitcoin’s gains might be short-lived due to significant outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, totaling $1.3 billion, indicating reduced investor interest and potential downward pressure on prices.
US Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Impact on Bitcoin
In the US, recent softer macroeconomic data has fueled expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut this year, sparking a rally in Bitcoin prices as investors cover short positions.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar found support from comments by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, who indicated that the Fed isn’t currently considering a rate cut due to ongoing inflation risks.
These contrasting signals from the Fed and economic data are influencing market sentiment, with Bitcoin experiencing upward pressure amid rate-cut speculation while the Dollar stabilizes on cautious inflation concerns.
Key Economic Data Highlights
- GDP Growth: First-quarter real GDP growth was revised up to a 1.4% annualized pace, the slowest since spring 2022, indicating a slowdown from the previous quarter’s 3.4% rise.
- Durable Goods Orders: May showed a slight increase of 0.1%, against expectations of a 0.1% decline, following a revised 0.6% growth in April.
- Jobless Claims: Initial jobless claims dropped to 233,000 in late June, although the four-week average edged up to 236,000, the highest since last September.
- Pending Home Sales: Fell by 2.1% in May, hitting the lowest level on record since 2001, signaling challenges in the housing market.
These mixed economic indicators highlight ongoing uncertainties influencing market sentiment. Softer economic data from the US has increased expectations of Fed rate cuts, boosting Bitcoin prices as investors react to potential monetary policy changes favoring cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin Price Rises Amid Presidential Debate Favoring Trump
During CNN’s first presidential debate on June 27, Bitcoin’s price rose by 1.1% as betting markets favored Donald Trump over President Joe Biden. Bitcoin traded at $61,439 before the debate, peaked at $62,152 during the event, and settled at $61,362 afterward.
According to PredictIt, Trump’s chances of winning surged, while Biden’s odds dropped significantly. Observers noted Biden’s difficulty in answering questions coherently, which influenced market sentiment.
Key Debate Points
- Pre-Debate Price: $61,439
- Peak During Debate: $62,152
- Post-Debate Price: $61,362
Data from PredictIt indicated that Trump’s odds of winning the presidency rose, while Biden’s chances declined significantly. Observers noted that Biden struggled with his responses and occasionally failed to complete his sentences during the debate.
Trump’s odds on PredictIt increased from $0.53 to $0.63, while Biden’s fell sharply from $0.48 to $0.37 in the same period.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is currently trading at $61,530, down 0.20%. On the 4-hour chart, the pivot point is set at $61,200. Immediate resistance is located at $62,510, followed by $63,440 and $64,510.
On the downside, immediate support is at $60,160, with further support levels at $59,190 and $58,430.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 50, indicating neutral momentum. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $61,780, acting as a critical resistance level.
Key Technical Points
- Current Price: $61,530, down 0.20%, with RSI at 50.
- Immediate Resistance: $62,510
- Immediate Support: $60,160
Bitcoin is forming an ascending triangle pattern, with significant resistance near the $62,500 level and support at the pivot point of $61,200, bolstered by an upward trendline.
The outlook remains bullish above $61,200. However, a break below this level could trigger a sharp selling trend.
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