Ryan Rasmussen, a researcher at Bitwise, has offered a nuanced perspective on the potential approval of spot Ethereum Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) in the coming months, assigning equal probabilities of 50% to both approval and rejection outcomes.
In an interview with Yahoo Finance on February 26, Rasmussen expressed uncertainty regarding the market’s readiness for such a development, aligning with the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) preferences.
“It’s about a 50/50 percent chance that we’ll see approval or we’ll see rejection,” remarked Rasmussen, indicating a split probability for the future of spot Ethereum ETFs.
This viewpoint resonates with Matt Hougan, Bitwise’s Global Head of Research, who also estimated a nearly 50% chance of approval in May. However, predictions on the Polymarket website are slightly less optimistic, showing a 44% likelihood of approval.
The SEC is expected to make a decision on VanEck’s spot Ethereum ETF application by May 23, concurrently considering other similar applications. This approach mirrors the SEC’s handling of spot Bitcoin ETF applications in the past.
Rasmussen highlighted the SEC’s previous rejections of Bitcoin ETFs until legal action from Grayscale compelled a reconsideration. The potential necessity of a lawsuit for Ethereum ETF approval remains uncertain, as does the likelihood of any applicant initiating legal action at this stage.
Despite lacking a pending application for a spot Ethereum ETF, Bitwise secured approval for a spot Bitcoin ETF earlier on January 10. Rasmussen expressed satisfaction with the performance of Bitcoin ETFs, noting Bitwise’s Bitcoin ETF (BITB) attracted $1 billion in assets, contributing to a collective inflow of more than $15 billion into ETFs.
He further speculated on the impact of spot Bitcoin ETFs and similar funds on cryptocurrency prices, attributing recent increases to institutional investors entering the market. Rasmussen suggested similar effects could be observed for Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies with the introduction of additional ETFs.
Additionally, Rasmussen discussed various factors influencing the cryptocurrency market, including Bitcoin’s upcoming halving, Ethereum’s DenCun upgrade, fluctuations in NFT trading volumes, and Solana’s price growth. He suggested the cryptocurrency sector is transitioning from a challenging 2022 into a multi-year bull cycle.
Concluding his insights, Rasmussen reaffirmed Bitwise’s price predictions, maintaining that Bitcoin is on track to reach a new all-time high of at least $88,000 by the end of 2024. This forecast signals a robust outlook for the cryptocurrency market amid evolving regulatory and investment landscapes.
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